Landscape, Nature And Travel Photography

2009 offered up some great developments on the technical side of the photography industry, while the down economy has squeezed many photographers. In this regard 2009 was certainly a year to both love and hate. What might be around the corner in 2010? Here are my 10 Photography Predictions for 2010:

1. Computational Photography will hit a new landmark
   Expect a variety of announcements in regard to computational photography in 2010. Cameras will certainly be taking a new path in their evolution as we got a glimpse of in 2009 with the open-source camera. Beyond 2010 we might see some of this technology in a more traditional commercial camera.
2. Digital Noise Vanishes, but Faux Film Grain Comes Into Fashion
   I think it’s fair to say the latest cameras that have come out from Nikon and Canon have nearly done away with digital noise even at traditionally ultra high ISO settings. Ironically I predict that as people get use to noise free photos faux film grain will come into style.
3. Film makes a comeback… a small one
   Counter to my earlier writing Film is Dead. No Really! film will catch on even more with photographers who have caught the digital photography bug. The population of film photographers will grow a bit in 2010 (beyond photo schools & fine art photographers), but the big question is, “Will this growth sway film manufacturers from discontinuing more film stocks?”
4. Orphan Works Legislation Rears Its Ugly Head in Washington, but only Briefly
   Orphan Works Legislation will reappear on Capital Hill, but only late in 2010. Even then the legislation will be put off until 2011 due to continued partisanship on larger economic and other social issues/legislation. Even though I’m making this prediction I’m making plans to watch for any movement on this legislation through out the year. Photographers cannot afford to remain idle on this issue. John Harrington’s Photo Business News & Forum does a great job on relaying updates & editorial to this legislation and an official site to monitor status of legislation moving through the U.S. Congress is govtrack.us.
5. More Virtual Trade Shows
   In order to maximize cost savings photographers and photo companies alike who are reeling from the down economy will opt to attend more virtual trade shows versus traditional trade shows. PDN hosted a couple of the more popular virtual trade shows this year. I’m expecting to see this trend continue through out 2010 until the economy improves.
6. Camera Sensor Megapixel Wars Plateau
   Camera manufacturers will focus on camera enhancements other than increased sensor resolution for new dSLR models. As the economy continues to struggle the broadest segment of the camera consumer market will accept the 20 megapixel sensor resolution as the norm. This will be driven by a slow down in sensor resolution research and a standardization of manufacturing for such resolutions. Even the biggest camera manufacturers hit hard by the economic melt down of 2008/9 are going to be looking for new ways to meet demand, remain competitive and most importantly cut costs. Expect to see marketing that reflects this shift in the near future. That being said the medium format digital photography market will see continued activity to optimize sensors falling in the 40-80 megapixel range. Even in this market attention will fall on improving ISO sensitivity and digital noise after the dust settles.
7. Crowdsourcing of Photo Content Formally Threatens Microstock
   The low end of the stock photography market will start to be squeezed in 2010 as crowdsourcing photo sites/services emerge. The early exploration of this trend has been happening with photo contest rights grabs (see  How The Rights To Your Photo Are Being Hijacked Through Photo Contests & Social Media circa 2008), but will take on a more formal legitimate front this year. Why would I possibly imagine such a thing? Perception of the value of photography continues to plummet and its bound to get worse before it gets better. The only thing worse than photos that cost a few dollars to license are photos that can be used for free.
8. Well Known/Famous Photographers File for Bankruptcy
   Annie Leibovitz isn’t the only well known photographer facing tough times due to personal problems and an economy in free fall (see Agreement Reached on a Reprieve for Leibovitz Loan Repayment), she just may be the most visible. Photographers who have not embraced new marketing and revenue models will face the hardest of times. Those who have been slowest to adapt and have been over extended will suffer the worst fate. In 2010 it’s only a matter of time before news of bankruptcy hitting well known photographers comes to light.
9. Self-publishing forces the transformation of traditional photo publications
   The last 4-5 years have been a boon for photographers in publishing content online on their own terms via blogs, YouTube, etc. The last 2 years have provided even further opportunity to photographers as print on-demand services (Blurb, LuLu, MagCloud, and an infinite number of other printers) have established themselves. Photographer generated content as reached a tipping point at the close of 2009 and more traditional publishing outlets will begin to leverage this content for their own purposes. Whether content is integrated to a magazine web site or to the magazine itself editors will have an easier time picking and choosing content. The big question is will they opt to have this content in print or republish it online or both?
10. dSLR Video Leans Toward Niche Adoption vs. Broad Consumer Adoption
    I’m inclined to think that dSLR video will be wildly popular with a narrow audience and remain as an unused feature by the vast majority of the consumer market.  Film & Television cinematographers will flock to dSLR video at a higher percentage than still photographers. The reason for this is cinematographers are already used to the extra cost of video production while most still photographers are not. Shooting production quality video with a dSLR requires a large outlay of cash for accessories, well beyond the budget of most still photographers. Thom Hogan’s recent observation (Dec. 29, 2009) highlights how low video enabled dSLRs fall on the top sellers list for camera manufacturers. Perhaps this is a sign of the tough economy limiting the number of upgrades photographers make, but in combination with random observation of friends & colleagues I’m finding that those with dSLRs that shoot video often never use the feature. If video is your thing be sure to check out Vincent Laforet’s predictions.

Technorati Tags: photography, predictions, 2010

2009 has been an interesting year for photographers who have taken the plunge with Social Media. I’m guessing back in January of 2009 many of you would have scoffed at the notion of being active in Social Media by years end. It’s been great to see so many photographers experiment with it this year. While I knew use of Social Media would not stick for some, I have been pleasantly surprised more people have stuck with it than I’d have anticipated.

If you consider yourself a Social Media friendly photographer here are 10 predictions for the New Year to keep you thinking through 2009 and beyond.

1. Real-Time Search becomes a game changer
   Twitter’s search deal with Google & Bing is the beginning of the end for traditional search. Google will work to stay ahead of the pack in developing algorithms to query and rank results from Twitter. Google’s battle with Facebook on the Real-Time search will also pick up steam as the race begins to dominate this new and fast growing set of data. We may not see the full effect in 2010, but we’ll definitely start to see an impact from real-time search in day to day management of our sites. Sentiment, brand management, and shifting rankings will impact all who manage business web sites.
2. Reverse Image Search applications go mainstream
   TinEye, PicScout Image IRC and Google Goggles will increasingly become part of daily search for many people. The main drivers to this development will hit opposite ends of the use spectrum. Mobile phone applications will free up tired thumbs that need a break from tiny keyboard typing. Larger companies will more widely adopt reverse image search applications to manage their intellectual property in an increasingly chaotic environment online.
3. Engagement & Sentiment analytics will become the latest obsession
   Standard web metrics will look like child’s play compared to emerging engagement & sentiment analytics. With ever growing demand from larger corporations a software development race will heat up to provide meaningful analytics to tackle Return on Investment (ROI) & Return on Engagement (ROE) questions. Engagement analytics will fill a growing vacuum to measure & manage community development, brand management and personnel management
4. Facebook’s 2009 identity crisis will last through 2010
   Circa 1990’s Microsoft fashion Facebook will continue to steal feature ideas from innovators to secure and expand its foothold in the Social Media space… all while developing very little innovation of its own. Continue to see Facebook change course in 2010 and beyond, as it attempts to morph into the latest buzz.
5. iPhone apps will lose momentum
   iPhone applications have reached a saturation point and as a result developer interest will continue a sharper fade in 2010. The one exception will be the maturation of augmented reality applications and demand for games. Lack of a larger interest by developers will impact demand downstream with app users. In addition the lack of market expansion resulting from diminishing developer support will drive consolidation of game development to companies who have profited most from iPhone app development. The gold rush for individual developers is coming to an end.
6. The U.S. government will officially turn to Social Media to fight terrorism & address national emergencies
   The growing threat of non-traditional communication channel use by enemies abroad & at home and the success of the DARPA Balloon Hunt has put Social Media squarely in the sights of government security and emergency relief agencies. Larger safety concerns, terrorism and natural disaster, will spur programs to use Social Media communication in polar opposite fashions: monitor & hinder information seen as a threat vs. leverage & spread information to avert threats. And you thought you had a love hate relationship with Social Media!
7. Facebook will yet again fail to learn from past mistakes regarding Privacy
   With an eye toward company goals (IPO,  expanding ad revenue, etc.) Facebook will turn a blind eye to privacy concerns incorrectly thinking members will endure most anything rather than re-establish network relationships through another service.
8. Flickr will undergo a long over due redesign
   My Hail Mary prediction of the year is that Yahoo it will undergo a layout redesign. Personally I think this is a long shot, but I’m hopeful that Flickr will surprise me. Improvements will include an update to the image detail page layout to more clearly highlight use rights, tags, image sets and embed social media hooks to improve the sharing capability of their service. Higher level changes to display Explored images will take effect to broaden community interaction.
9. Data Portability will make little head way
   Full Data Portability will live on as an idealistic dream. Implementation of a widely adopted independent & open format for single sign-on will remain rough and barely hold on as Facebook makes a full frontal assault to dominate this space as Facebook Connect and Google Friend Connect taints the larger community effort . With few incentives for private companies to adopt true data portability it is likely to languish until the next PR nightmare to haunt Facebook, Google or Twitter.
10. Google Wave will start to live up to the hype in late 2010
    GoogleWave beta has had a tough time living up to the hype it has received.  It’s biggest strength and biggest weakness is its dependence on developers to create reliable functionality that can be appended to its use. Incredibly strong for communicating collaboratively it has a while to go before hitting a tipping point with a larger audience. GoogleWave strikes me as having its strongest use by large enterprises, but less the proper developer support will find itself stuck in niche uses. As more reliable and functional add-ons are created for GoogleWave, use will increase and a larger tipping point among individual users is likely to happen in late 2010.

Technorati Tags: Social Media, predictions, 2010